Weekly Update for
October 15

On the latest edition of the NAWG Podcast we’re exploring the importance of farmer advocacy, the latest economic trends shaping the wheat industry, and the political landscape heading into the midterm elections. First, we’re joined by NAWG Board of Directors member and Montana wheat farmer Steve Sheffels to discuss this month’s multi-commodity fly-in in Washington, D.C. He’ll share insights from his conversations with lawmakers and explain why it’s so important for farmers to make their voices heard on Capitol Hill. Next, we welcome NAWG’s newest team member, agricultural economist Betty Resnick, to break down the economic challenges and trends facing wheat farmers. From rising input costs and fluctuating wheat prices to global competition, trade, and farm profitability, we’ll explore the key factors influencing producers’ decisions and the outlook for the industry. Finally, Mike Sistak joins us to look ahead to the upcoming midterm elections and discuss what the results could mean for agricultural policy and the future of U.S. wheat growers.

At the North American Millers’ Association (NAMA) annual meeting last week, NAWG CEO Sam Kieffer discussed the significant economic challenges facing U.S. wheat growers and outlined NAWG’s policy priorities to strengthen the industry’s future. Kieffer highlighted that wheat production has been unprofitable in eight of the past nine years without government support, underscoring the need for Congress to address the underlying causes of crop input price spikes, advance a comprehensive farm bill, and provide a business environment where farmers can compete in the U.S. and globally.

Last week, NAWG CEO Sam Kieffer joined Agri-Pulse Newsmakers to discuss the outlook for the farm bill and how diesel relief measures are impacting farmers. Watch the conversation below for insights on these key issues facing agriculture.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released a pre-publication draft of a Federal Register notice outlining the Emissions Value Request (EVR) process for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, which was modified and extended under the Working Families Tax Cut. The tax credit incentivizes the production of qualifying transportation fuels using certain feedstocks produced in the United States, Mexico, or Canada. While commodities like corn and sorghum are included in existing emissions rate tables, wheat is not explicitly listed as an ethanol feedstock. The new EVR process could provide an opportunity for fuel producers utilizing wheat to obtain an emissions value, potentially expanding biofuel markets for wheat growers. If a fuel’s type, primary feedstock, or production pathway is not included in the table, such as wheat, producers must request an emissions value from DOE and petition the U.S. Treasury for a provisional emissions rate (PER). Applicants must submit a completed EVR form and engineering analyses or other documentation demonstrating project maturity, with the option to provide additional information to support the life-cycle emissions analysis. For application instructions and further details, stakeholders can visit DOE’s 45Z EVR webpage or contact 45ZEmissionsRequest@doe.gov, while questions about tax credit eligibility should be directed to the IRS.

Wheat producers are expected to receive significant support through the Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs for the 2025 crop year. According to a recent farmdoc daily analysis, wheat payments are estimated to total approximately $2.9 billion, with wheat base acres averaging $47 per acre in ARC/PLC payments. PLC provided the higher payment for wheat in 79% of counties, with payment rates particularly strong across the Western and Rocky Mountain regions, as well as portions of the Midwest and East. The payments reflect changes to the commodity title programs enacted through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including higher reference prices and increased ARC-CO coverage.

The USDA’s October 2026 projections indicate a continued decline in U.S. wheat export prospects for the 2026/27 marketing year. Total exports are forecast at 750 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. If realized, this would be the second-lowest U.S. wheat export volume since 1971/72, reflecting sluggish export sales and tight supplies of Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat. HRW exports are reduced by 20 million bushels to 175 million, which would be the second-lowest level on record since class-specific data began in 1973/74. Smaller harvested area and widespread drought have constrained HRW supplies. Historically the largest U.S. wheat export class, HRW is expected to trail Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat for the third time in four years. HRS exports are also lowered by 10 million bushels and are projected to reach their lowest level in four years. In contrast, U.S. White wheat exports remain strong, increasing by 5 million bushels to 225 million. This would mark a six-year high, supported by White wheat’s price competitiveness relative to the other four major U.S. wheat classes. Exports of Soft Red Winter and Durum wheat are unchanged from last month but remain below year-ago levels. Overall, the October outlook highlights persistent weakness in U.S. wheat export demand, particularly for HRW and HRS, while competitive pricing continues to support White wheat exports.

The winners for the 2026 contest will be announced on November 2 at the National Wheat Foundation Fall Board Meeting in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and by Progressive Farmer that same day. Stay tuned to see how everyone did in 2026 amidst all the drought challenges. There will be 28 National Winners announced and over 70 state winners. Congratulations to all the winners, and to everyone who entered the contest. The learnings contestants gain on their own farms are very valuable. Planning ahead for the 2027 contest; the categories are changing a bit. The contest is continuing to evolve to better meet the needs of contestants and partners, the winter wheat dryland category will be broken down into wheat classes. There is a new durum category being added, with 4 national winners from durum categories planned. Look for more information on www.wheatcontest.org. If you would like to become a partner, please contact Anne Osborne (aosborne@wheatworld.org).

The National Wheat Foundation along with our partner, BASF, offer 2 $2500 scholarships for college students. The deadline to submit the application is December 1, 2026. For more information about the scholarships and the application, please visit the Foundation’s website Leadership Programs - National Wheat Foundation.